The whispers started early in the Westminster lobby. A trade truce between Washington and Beijing? Fragile. Very fragile. And now Trump is heading to China. The timing is brutal for British exporters already sweating over post-Brexit deals.

Here’s the inside line. The prime minister’s team is watching this like hawks. No one is popping champagne. The truce is a ceasefire, not a peace treaty. One wrong move from the White House and tariffs snap back. UK carmakers, whisky distillers, and the City’s financial services are all exposed.

I’ve had three separate briefings from trade officials this week. Off the record, obviously. The mood is grim. They fear Trump will use the visit to extract concessions from Xi Jinping. Concessions that could hurt UK interests. Think agricultural subsidies. Think tech transfer rules.

Here’s the game. Trump needs a win. His base is restless. The trade deficit with China is still a talking point at his rallies. So he’ll push for fewer barriers to US goods. Fine for American farmers. Not so fine for British lamb exports that are barely hanging on.

But wait. There’s a rumour doing the rounds in the lobby. A senior cabinet minister – name redacted, you know the rules – has been sounding out backbenchers about a potential UK-China trade deal. Independent of the US. A safety net if the truce collapses. The PM’s office denies this, obviously. But my source insists it’s real.

Polling data I’ve seen tells a stark story. Public confidence in trade negotiations is at its lowest since 2016. Only 23% of voters believe the government can secure favourable terms with China. That’s a number that keeps No. 10 up at night.

Backbench rebellions are brewing. The 1922 Committee is restless. A group of Brexiteers is drafting a letter demanding the government publish a contingency plan if the US-China talks go south. They’re worried about a ‘double squeeze’ – no US deal, no UK-Cina deal.

The reality is simple. Trump’s visit is a test. Not just for him, but for UK diplomacy. Can we keep our trade lanes open when the superpowers are playing brinksmanship? I’ll be watching the readouts from Beijing closely. The body language between Trump and Xi will tell us more than any official statement.

For now, UK exporters are holding their breath. The fragility of this truce is the only constant. And in the game of trade, that’s a dangerous hand to hold.