Donald Trump touched down in Beijing today for a two-day summit that will seriously test the tentative ceasefire in the world's most consequential trade war. For working families in Britain's industrial heartlands, this is not distant geopolitics. This is about the price of a washing machine, the viability of a steel plant, and the value of a pay packet.
The tariff truce, brokered in October, paused a tit-for-tat escalation that has hammered global supply chains. But it left the core dispute unresolved. America wants China to buy more US goods, stop stealing intellectual property, and end forced technology transfers. China demands respect for its development model and an end to what it sees as bullying tactics.
The high stakes are clear. A breakdown here means returning to 25 per cent tariffs on billions of dollars of goods. That would mean higher costs for British importers, leaner margins for manufacturers who source components from both sides, and eventually, higher shelf prices in Sainsbury's. The Bank of England has already warned that a full-blown trade war could knock 0.5 per cent off UK growth. For regions like the North East and West Midlands, already struggling with wage stagnation, that is a grim prospect.
Union leaders are watching closely. Unite the union's assistant general secretary, Steve Turner, said: 'Our members in aerospace, automotive and chemicals have been living with the uncertainty of these tariffs for months. Investment decisions are on hold. Overtime has been cut. Workers are paying for a spat between billionaires. This summit must deliver a clear road map to de-escalation, or the real economy will suffer.'
On the streets of Beijing, Trump is expected to press Xi Jinping for concrete commitments on agricultural purchases and market access. But the Chinese president faces domestic pressure not to be seen as buckling to US demands. The mood in the Chinese capital is cautious optimism, laced with defiance. State media this morning ran front-page editorials hailing China's resilience but calling for 'mutual respect'.
For the British worker, the outcome matters in pounds and pence. A stable trade environment means cheaper raw materials for factories and more certainty for employers to hire. A trade war means the opposite. As one Sheffield-based steelworker told me last week: 'We've been through recessions, closures, bailouts. We don't need another shock from a place we can't control.'
The summit runs through Thursday. Shadow business secretary Jonathan Reynolds said the government must have a contingency plan: 'Ministers cannot sit on their hands. If talks collapse, we need targeted support for affected industries and a stronger trade defence mechanism.'
Downing Street has declined to comment on back-up plans, insisting it hopes for a 'positive outcome'. But in the real economy, hope is not a strategy.
